There are only 20 days left in all of 2024 and I think it is very fair to say that most people have
their focus far from the real estate market in London, Ontario. Most people, but not all!
Here we are with the REAL Market Report for November 2024, what is essentially the end of the real estate year and it did not disappoint.
I do want to say that I have been in Christmas/holiday mode for a few weeks now. Christmas in our household often starts on November 1st as we chuck out the pumpkins (spiced lattes) and put up the tree. This year was a bit different, we were in SW Florida for a good chunk of November and the beginning of December so we didn’t go all out right before we left. We have since finished decorating the house, started baking cookies and cranked quite a few Christmas songs along the way.
I have been delaying putting up the lights outside as it continues to rain, which is far worse than any amount of snow in December, but that is on the to-do list this week.
The fantasy football playoffs start this week, something else that often takes up a decent amount of my mental focus from time to time and I would like to give a big shout out to my friends and competitors in the “Juicy Fantasy League” of which I am the regular season champion in 2024. If they gave the trophy out after 14 games, I would have more than one of those, but it’s not time to celebrate yet. I’m chasing that finals victory, and if I win, I will sit alone at the top of the mountain with 3 league titles overall, all of them coming since 2018.
Sometimes it feels like taking candy from a baby. And I do hope that my leaguemates from the JFL read this. I know they are all hoping I lose but that just adds fuel to the fire.
Before we get into the stats, I do want to wish everyone a happy Holiday Season. I hope that it is filled with great memories, traditions and time spent with loved ones. It’s an important time of year to enjoy the people in our lives that mean the most, to tell them that and to cherish them.
And if you are lucky enough to be in your own fantasy football playoffs, best of luck with that as well.
Stats time!
In the last market report I said I would be keeping an eye on two statistical trends that I think will largely shape the real estate market in the months ahead.
First on that list was an increase in number of sales. A lot of market participants and commentators have been speculating that an increase in demand was on the way in the wake of all the rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. After seeing the data for November, there are three months of data to back that theory up.
427 sales in London last month, up 37% from November 2023 and a solid 90% of the 10 year average sales for the month of November. That is higher than I was expecting and I think a clear indicator that demand is finally turning into actual sales.
For context, September’s sales were 76% of the 10yr average. October was 81%. And now, 90% cements that trend.
If there were 300 sales in December, that would be pretty damn near 100% of the 10yr average and would really show that buyers don’t want to wait to buy before a potential upswing in prices in the new year or spring.
The other big stat that I was keeping an eye on was active listings, or available inventory. My thought was that an increase in demand, which we can clearly see is real, and a decrease in supply could combine to create a tighter market that would lead to an increase in prices.
There was a decline in the number of active listings last month from 1829 at the end of October to 1651 at the end of November.
That is actually higher than it was at the end of November 2023 (1593) but when you combine the number of sales and active listings, months of inventory actually went down from 5.1 to 3.9. (Months of inventory: if no new listings were added to the market, how long would it take to sell all available listings.) For reference, 4 months of inventory would represent a balanced market, anything less than 2 months of inventory would be a seller’s market.
I do think there will be a sharp reduction in available inventory by the end of December as a lot of listings will expire December 31 and there will be a lot of cancellations and homes taken off the market for the holidays if they don’t sell. We started 2024 with 965 active listings in January which actually led to a bit of a run up in prices until the end of June. I don’t think we will sink below 1000 active listings to start 2025 but I will be closely monitoring it!
New listings was the last noteworthy statistic of the month at 757. In November 2023 there were 753 new listings, talk about consistency. 757 was 122% of the 10yr average. Guess what? In October, 951 new listings was also 122% of the 10yr average. Isn’t that something.
Lastly, we can discuss prices. In London, the average sale price was $614,399 which was down a whopping 0.24% from the month before but was up 1.8% from last year. Again, it is shocking how level the average sale price has remained this year given the supply and demand discrepancies.
Now I don’t usually look outside of London for these reports but while we are on the topic of average sale price, I want to mention that over the whole area that LSTAR covers, the average sale price was up 5.9% year over year. The smaller communities outside of London certainly saw an uptick last month, it will be very interesting to see if that starts to happen inside the city where majority of sales take place.
I said this last month, I don’t believe a surge in prices is imminent. Everything that I have talked about in this report will contribute to shaping our market in the year ahead and I will remain locked in on number of sales and available inventory. Those are the real estate tea leaves that will determine if prices are going to climb.
Again, happy holidays! I will be back in the new year to discuss the December stats before the spring market begins.
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